The Watchlist: Week 1
Welcome to the first edition of The Watchlist. Each week, we’ll go over five things between players, matchups, and trends, to keep an eye on for the upcoming week of games. With this being Week 1, there’s a lot of projection and we’ll be seeing everything for the first time, so this week’s Watchlist focuses on some of the things we’re looking forward to the most.
1. Micah Parsons in Green Bay
It’s not really possible to start anywhere other than this. The Green Bay Packers acquired one of the league’s best defensive players just a week before the start of the season, and he’ll make his debut against a divisional rival and one of the best teams in the conference.
The 2024 Packers finished the season fourth in weighted defensive DVOA but still lacked a player who could wreck a game on his own and demand attention along the front seven. So much of Green Bay’s defensive success came from turnovers, forcing the second-most turnovers per drive according to FTN. That was combined with a pass rush that ranked 10th in pressure rate while blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate in the league. Productive, sure, but now add Micah Parsons.
Parsons can obviously win one-on-one, but what stands out is how the defense can move him around anywhere to create the mismatch they want. Last season, when Washington Commanders center Tyler Biadasz was out, the Cowboys lined Parsons up directly over the backup center and let him go for an immediate sack.
He can line up pretty much anywhere and still be a threat as a pass rusher.
That can include picking his spot against a weak link in an offensive line, even if it’s inside.
Detroit’s interior offensive line could be a work in progress after the retirement of Frank Ragnow and the loss of Kevin Zeitler in free agency. The Lions will have second-year sixth-round pick Christian Mahogany, Graham Glasgow, and rookie second-round pick Tate Ratledge playing inside. Testing that interior could be how Green Bay gets an advantage in the trenches.
For as much as Jared Goff has improved during his tenure in Detroit, he’s still one of the most impacted passers when pressured. Last season, only Joe Flacco had a bigger drop in DVOA when pressured versus not pressured (-148.9%). Goff had his worst game of the season against Washington in the playoffs when the Commanders consistently created pressure, and the Lions couldn’t counter. When Goff is pressured, he’s also more prone to throw deep. According to Next Gen Stats, Goff’s rate of deep throws in 2024 went from 4.5% when not pressured to 10.1% when pressured (though he still had the second-lowest aDOT overall when pressured at 5.4 yards).
Forcing Goff to hold onto the ball and make throws he doesn’t otherwise want to make could be the path for this Packers defense to make an immediate impact.
